This statistical measure is called the **Random Match Probability (RMP)**. It is the estimated probability that a randomly selected, unrelated individual from a given population would, by chance, have the same DNA profile as the one observed in the evidence. For example, an RMP of '1 in 1 quadrillion' means it is statistically expected that only one person in 1 quadrillion unrelated individuals would share that profile. To calculate the RMP, forensic biologists use the **product rule**: they determine the frequency of each allele in the profile at each STR locus within a relevant population database (e.g., U.S. Caucasian, African American, Hispanic). These frequencies are then multiplied together (with adjustments for homozygosity and substructure). The result is an extremely small number, which is then inverted (1 divided by that number) to produce the '1 in X' format. This statistic helps the jury understand the meaning of a DNA match. It is distinct from the **Likelihood Ratio**, which compares the probability of the evidence under two competing hypotheses (prosecution vs. defense).

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